SAIS in Crisis: Sim 2007
By Jessica Stahl

The weekend before midterms, while most of you were studying like mad, a group of brave students gathered in Rome to take on the monumental task of running the world, and to find out what happens when SAIS-ers stop being polite and start getting real.

Welcome to Crisis Sim 2007.

The simulation involved nearly 80 players representing 22 countries (including the Palestinian Authority), 5 international organizations, and the media, plus Al Qaeda spokesman Marollahammed, who roamed the halls throughout the weekend looking for targets. All this was coordinated by a 6 member “control” team who planned the entire simulation and then spent the weekend making sure things stayed on track.

The annual crisis simulation grows out of a class offered every year, in which the students who will become the control team learn how to manage this immense task. This year they had visits from experts at RAND, the Department of Defense, the New York Times, the NSC and a former Presidential advisor who spoke to the team about the various aspects of putting together a simulation.

The team also had to work with maintenance and IT to make sure the Rome building, where the simulation took place, was absolutely wired head-to-toe. Every room had a phone so teams could communicate easily with each other, and four rooms had video cameras and microphones that fed down into control headquarters, so control could keep an eye on what was going on. Control also worked with an outside resource to set up a website which served as the central hub of the simulation, where control would post information, the media would post news stories, and countries could post government statements.

According to control member Phil Reiner, “Our goal in the simulation was to answer questions: what does the international community do when a nuclear armed state falls apart? How do countries share intelligence? What will the international community do with about a crisis in Africa? What is the decision-making process and how does it work under duress?”

In the process of answering those questions we endured long hours (about 17 hours in total) and early mornings (9am!!!!), and consumed an obscene amount of donuts and coffee (not so different from real world politics I guess).

This proved too much for some participants, who didn’t quite make it through. Saudi king Omar Itum was reported MIA for most of Saturday morning (second-in-command Nadav Davidai refused to confirm reports that Itum was in bed nursing a hangover, but we know the truth), and UK Prime Minister Bertie Troughton ran off on Sunday, allegedly to have an affair with Victoria Beckham, leaving UK “Defence” Minister Brandon Bryan to run the country in his stead.

Most of us survived the simulation, however, thanks to a number of lighthearted moments like only SAIS could provide.

For example, after control reported that the PRC had accidentally killed some Japanese fishermen, Japan posted an official government statement: “Japan would also like to offer China, free of charge, a shipment of our latest high definition binoculars (since we are, as China rightly pointed out, brilliant at technical "gadgetry") that will greatly improve the vision of Chinese soldiers.” The China team, in a similar spirit, chose to defend itself with nuclear-armed pandas in the last seconds of the simulation.

The Iran team also had a number of prize moments, offering “vowels, possibly dipthongs, to Rpblk Srpsk” and executing a last minute rocket launch, which not only “broadcast the holy Quran as it passed over Europe and North America,” but also “detonated in a shower of confetti in space 50 miles above the American state of Iowa approximately 30 minutes after launch. ”

In addition, the media outlets this year included a liberal blogger and Fox News, which allowed us to post such stories as, “China? More like ‘Whina,’” “French still cheese-eating surrender monkeys,” “Ladies and Gents, your BBC: What a bunch of simpering pantywastes!” and “Sorry the horrific terrorist attacks ruined your garden party Mr.  President.”

But the simulation was also, and primarily, deadly serious as we tested our ability to cope with global crisis in an unpredictable world.

A number of major crises emerged throughout the course of the weekend. Radiation was detected after the US base in Djibouti was attacked by a terrorist group, killing US, French and German citizens. This same terrorist group was linked to a Russian-Saudi-Kenyan arms nexus.

In Latin America, Colombia and Venezuela worked a number of issues that threatened regional stability, breaking off diplomatic contact at a few critical points.  

The crisis that ended up taking center stage was the death of Pakistani President Musharraf, which caused Pakistan to disintegrate rapidly. A General Majeed, played by Josh White, took over the country’s leadership and the simulation ended with US troops, under the NATO flag, invading Pakistan to secure its nuclear facilities.

Control member Elaine Hensle says, “I think the most telling moment in the entire simulation came when [US President Chris] Wendell was on the phone to Majeed and we had him up on the screen in the control room.  They were talking about nuclear weapons and precedents when Wendell said, ‘We've never dealt with questions about the command and control of nukes before there is no precedent here.’ The control room let out collective cheer. It showed that the players actually got it.”

Some of the countries played their roles like champs. Anny “Kim Jong-Il” Vu was just as attention-hungry and unpredictable as the real thing. When she was feeling ignored at the Six Party Talks, she decided to lob a missile over Japan and conduct a missile test on the China border. The Iran team also stepped easily into their role, proving to be a suspicious, duplicitous and conniving bunch.

According to control member Steven Goode, “The personalities of the team leaders were extremely important. We knew an Iranian team led by Henry Nuzum and Chris Forster would be very strong, but it turned out to be even more dynamic than I had anticipated.”

There were some surprising and exciting moments. Most notably, UK Foreign Minister Tarig Hilal spearheaded a Middle East peace process that resulted in a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and the entire Arab world.

“Tarig’s Middle East deal was the biggest surprise of the simulation, and I think most of us (those that didn't leave the control room) didn't even get to witness the negotiation process, which was really amazing and innovative,” says control member Monika Keleman. “Tarig rocked the whole simulation by actually getting a Middle East Peace Accord.”

But some of the smaller countries were just trying to stave off boredom as they found themselves a bit marginalized in the simulation. Andrew Pleininger’s Kenya launched what the media team came to jokingly call his “great works agenda,” creating a civil service corps and hiring Frank Weiss as Corruption Czar.

IAEA Director-General Alex Fleming, meanwhile, spent the simulation trying to garner support for the Iranian delegation’s proposal to replace the NPT with the Treaty for the Prevention of Nuclear Proliferation, or TPNP (pronounced tip-nip), a move which eventually got him fired by the IAEA Board of Governors.

At one point, Indian President Anthony Diaz told his delegation that TPNP was likely the result of Nuzum’s
inordinate fondness for good acronyms.

One of the best players was the US Congress who, after realizing that their role was pretty limited, decided to step it up. Control called in reinforcements, bringing in SAIS alums to reinforce Senator Arthur Lord and Congressman Jeff Chiang. The expanded Congress called members of the US team to testify on its failure to act in response to the Djibouti bombing. “Casper, Wyoming is the sister city of Djibouti, Djibouti,” one of the alums berated US Director of National Intelligence John Kenkel.

The US team was particularly interesting to watch. With 7 administration members and 2 Congressmen, that group faced the additional challenge of trying to coordinate the policy and actions of all its members.

According to Keleman, “The US team at times did seem paralyzed, probably due to their large size and trying to get all to agree on a course of action.  Wendell really valued the opinion of his staff.”

In the end, our performance in the simulation does not speak particularly well for SAIS students’ ability to run the world in the future.

As control member Claire Stockman put it in the post-simulation debrief Sunday afternoon, “Our goal was to see if you could deal with the problem of a failing nuclear state in the midst of other global crises. The answer, we found, is no.”

Reiner notes, “In the end, people did what we expected them to do, which was lead Pakistan into a military conflict and lose control of the nuclear weapons to radical elements in the process.  Somewhat unsettling when you think about it.” He adds, “I think people have much to learn, in terms of how to speak in diplomatic situations, how to strategize, how to keep a broad perspective in the midst of a chaotic situation, but also be able to focus in the strongest resources on the biggest threats at the same time.”

So maybe we’re not ready to run the real world quite yet. But if anyone’s looking for a few first-rate men (or women) to wreak a little havoc, or come up with some good acronyms, we know who to recommend.

Jessica Stahl is a 1st year MA candidate studying Conflict Management, and an editor of the Observer